Thursday, November 17, 2011

Doing Some Quick Electoral Math and I like President Obama's odds

Electoral Math 2012
If you give President Obama
·         Maine: 4
·         Vermont: 3
·         New York: 29
·         Pennsylvania: 20
·         Massachusetts: 11
·         Rhode Island: 4
·         Connecticut: 7
·         New Jersey: 14
·         Delaware: 3
·         Maryland: 10
·         Washington DC: 3
·         Michigan: 16
·         Illinois: 20
·         Washington: 12
·         Oregon: 7
·         California: 55
·         Hawaii: 4
He already hits 222 electoral votes of the 270 needed for election.  That means he needs to pick up 48 more electoral votes from:
·         New Hampshire: 4
·         Virginia: 14
·         North Carolina: 15
·         Florida: 29
·         Ohio: 18
·         Indiana: 11
·         Wisconsin: 10
·         Minnesota: 10
·         Iowa:4
·         Colorado: 9
·         New Mexico: 5
·         Nevada: 6
A total of 136 votes from states he carried in 2008.  Tracking polls and favorability polls don’t mean that much because we have 51 independent elections; thanks to the 12th amendment.
President Obama has several avenues to re-election, some of which could become more available as anti-republican fervor builds in Florida, Wisconsin, Arizona, and Ohio.  Likely scenarios for the President’s reelection:
1)      Go West: Pick up 20 votes from CO, NM, NV and FL gets him 271
2)      Go West and MidWest: Pick up 20 votes from CO, NM, NV and 26 votes from MN, IA, WI and find 2 votes somewhere else.
3)      Go MidAtlantic and South: Pick up VA, NC, and FL for 57 for 279.
4)      Go Rust Belt in IN and OH for 29 and mix in West or MidWest
I’m no Nate Silver, but I am fairly bullish about the President’s chances in 2012. Perhaps that is why this GOP field is so lame.  Perhaps they can do math afterall.

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