Tuesday, January 10, 2012

Digganalysis of Romney Chances and Campaign

Some Quick Romney Thoughts:
·         He is clearly the class of the field and will wrap up the Republican nomination quickly thanks to deep financing and well organized campaign.  That has helped him in the preliminaries, but how will it match up to the even better funded and better organized Obama campaign.  To be the champ, you need to beat the champ.
·         Romney is already getting bloodied for his Bain Capital ties and is already identified as a Richie Rich.  This will make it difficult for him to connect to the same lower/middle income blue collar workers with whom Obama struggles to connect.
·         Romney has been promoting his ability to accomplish so much in the democratically controlled Massachusetts legislature as a sign of his track record of getting things done.  This smacks of compromise, the four letter word that sends the anti-establishment Tea Partiers into an apoplectic rage
·         Super Pac ads will hammer Romney for his $10,000 bet with Perry, his ‘I’m running for President for Pete’s Sake’ comment, his sound bite of firing people, his use of ‘fees’ as to avoid the tax word, and of course his signature healthcare legislation in Massachusetts.  The purpose isn’t to convince voters to vote for Obama, but to keep some Republicans and moderates home.
·         Romney’s VP choice will be interesting.  VP choices won’t swing voters to your side, but they can get you a higher turnout.  I think the talk of a Nikki Haley to get the women and tea party vote is DOA as is the Marco Rubio option to get Hispanic voters to swing to Romney.  At the end of the day, he will need to select a true vetted Conservative to be his running mate.
·         If Romney is forced on the defensive by a broad-based attack from Obama he will be in a difficult spot.  The President has the resources to wage battles in every battleground states and some pink states forcing Romney to defend a lot of turf.
·         I don’t believe religion will be a major factor, but it will be a factor in that it could keep turnout down from Evangelicals.  If this happens in any battleground states, he could be in trouble.
·         Finally, Obama still has Bill Clinton to call on to campaign for him.  Who will Romney call?

Sit back and enjoy the ride.

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