Reflections, Obervations, and Analysis From Israeli Elections
I am political junkie and with the exception of the constant
barrage of negative ad campaigns, I love the election process. The polling, the analysis, the strategy; it’s
great theater and drama. This week, I
was able to experience an Israeli Parliamentary election for the first time,
and if you think American elections have drama and political gamesmanship, it can
pale in comparison to the Israeli version with its 10 or so competitive
parties. And while there was great disappointment
in the Israeli left, likewise on the U.S. left, the drama created from a “too
close to call” on election night to a comfortable win by Benjamin Netanyahu’s
Likud party the next morning offered flashbacks to US Presidential elections in
2000 and 2004. It was a frantic and frenetic
final 72 hours indeed.
But first a little background on Israel and parliamentary
elections. Unlike in the U.S., where the
electorate directly chooses the executive and legislative representatives from
two major parties, in Israel the electorate choses from dozens of parties to
fill the 120 seats in the Knesset (aka Parliament or Congress). The heads of the parties are determined in
primaries. Seats in the Knesset are awarded based on a percentage of total votes
cast and in order for a party to get at least one seat, it must cross a minimum
threshold of vote percentage. The 20th
Knesset will be sworn in on March 31st based on the results of
Tuesday’s election and will include representatives from ten different parties
ranging from the left wing Meretz to the right wing religious United Torah Judaism
(UTJ). The individuals who now represent
the various parties are chosen ahead of the election when each party submits a
list ranking the MK’s (Ministers of the Knesset). If a party wins four seats, the top four in
that party’s list will become a member of the Knesset.
But this only addresses the composition of the Knesset. By Israel’s Parliamentary rules, if a single
party can get a majority of the votes (61 out of 120), it’s leader is appointed
Prime Minister. In the history of
Israel, that has never happened.
Instead, a coalition government is formed, through a series of back
office promises, deals, and negotiations.
Once the election results are established, the President of Israel (today
it is Reuven Rivlin) determines who will be given the opportunity to form a
coalition. (The President is elected to one term of seven years by a majority
in the Knesset. He is not elected by the
citizens and while the Presidency in Israel is primarily a figurehead position,
it does carry significant power when it comes to elections and the dissolution
and formation of governments.) After
consulting with senior MK’s, the President will ask the Minister with the best
chance of forming a government to do so and is given 4 weeks (plus a two week
extension if necessary). If he is unsuccessful, the President may give a second
choice 28 days to form a government, if the President feels the current composition
of the Knesset cannot create a government (61 seat majority), he may call for a
unity government of several parties that may include a power sharing provision
or he may call for new elections.
So how did we get where we are today? In December last year, the 19th
Knesset voted to dissolve after the Netanyahu-led coalition fractured. President
Rivlin called for elections on March 17th and the scrambling began
led by three major events: The Arab Parties created the Joint List, a larger
bloc of smaller Arab parties to make sure they would exceed the election threshold
while becoming a coalition forming or leading opposition party, the center left
Labor and Hatnua parties merged to form the Zionist Union led by Isaac Herzog
and Tzipi Livni, and Moshe Kahlon split from Likud and in November established
the Kulanu Party to champion social causes such as income inequality. The table was set for a sharply contested and
compressed campaign where consolidations by the Arabs and center-left created
formidable blocs and the right seemed to be fracturing.
What happened in the last 72 hours leading up to the
election and what happened on election day could have pulled right from the
2004 Presidential Election in America, with a little bit of 2000 too. In Israel, there is a 72 hour blackout of
polling preceding election day so many people and pundits were still hanging on
the last available polling data that indicated that the Zionist Camp was
slightly ahead of Netanyahu’s Likud party, and the Arab List was holding its
own in third place with Lapid’s Center Right Yesh Atid party (a former coalition
member of Netanyahu’s). Clearly the
polling results worried Netanyahu as it appeared his controversial speech to
the Joint US Congress had yielded little or no election benefit and sensing possible
defeat. This necessitatied his US-based
campaign bankroll, Sheldon Adelson to fly to Tel Aviv meet with Bibi’s campaign
team at the Dan Tel Aviv where I happened to be staying. Yes the same Adelson who donated $100Million to
the Romney campaign and owns the Israeli newspaper Israel Ha Yom, which serves
as a Netanyahu campaign and PR sheet. To
their credit, Netanyahu’s campaign team stepped up its game at the end. In campaign ads, public appearances, and
interviews Bibi hit the opposition as weak (Herzog) and fickle (Livni), while
telling all, he was the only guy who could defend Israel from Iran, ISIS,
Hamas, and the other threats. Yes, the
fear card was played over and over and while it may have targeted a few undecided,
the message was really aimed at the right wing electorate who may have been
voting for Bennett (Habayit Hayehudi), Liberman (Yisrael Beiteinu), and Kahlon
(Kulanu). His campaign ads showing him as
the only adult and his competitors as children were effective, while the Chuck
Norris’s video to Israelis to vote for Bibi was essentially mocked by most. But
the big card that Netanyahu played was his clear reversal on the two state
solution when he told Israeli News Site, NRG, "Anyone who is going to establish
a Palestinian state, anyone who is going to evacuate territories today, is
simply giving a base for attacks to the radical Islam against Israel." This seemed to conflict with his speech in
2009 at Bar-Ilan University where he supported the two state solution and the
Begin-Sadat agreement. This message was
clearly targeting Bennett’s supporters in the settlements who violently oppose
a Palestinian State. As we say in the
states, Bibi was clearly trying to shore up his base and peel off right wing
voters from his coalition partners.
Meanwhile on the left, the Joint Arab List, which had been
polling exceptionally strong, was hoping for a record turn out on election day
for the 800,000+ registered Arab voters (~15% of the total Israeli electorate)
versus historical apathetic voter turnout. And suddenly within the Zionist Camp
there was growing concern that Netanyahu and Likud were gaining momentum after
his late stage appeal to the right. As I
had speculated weeks ago, Herzog and Livni renounced their previous agreement
that they would rotate the Prime Ministership if they won. Instead, Herzog would be the sole head of
government, a decision based on internal polling that indicated that the polarizing
Livni was a drag on the ‘ticket’ and if she was out of the picture, the Zionist
Camp could draw in more from the center parties of Kulanu and Yesh Atid and
possible get some Arab votes and liberal votes from the dovish Meretz party. But
unlike Netanyahu who sought to poach voters from other right wing parties,
Herzog did not aggressively try to peel off voters from Yesh Atid, a
significant center bloc.
There was definitely a buzz on Tuesday, March 17th
in Tel Aviv for election morning, a
secular holiday in Israel, as many believed change was coming; and coupled with
St. Patrick’s Day partying, the city was alive. Israeli polls opened at 7am and
would close at 10pm for the 5,881,696 eligible voters, 5.3million of which are
residents of Israel, and there was expectation that voter turnout would exceed
the 67.8% from the 2013 elections. There
were 25 lists of candidates (imagine that America?) totaling 1,280 candidates
for the Knesset, including the one man list of Protecting Our Children – Stop Feeding
Them Pornography. Voting would be conducted at 10,372 polls around the country
including army bases. Prisons (yes inmates can vote in Israel), hospitals,
2,693 specifically for the physically disabled and another 1,548 for those with
limited mobility. The cost of the election was $59.7million and would be
supervised by the Central Election Committee.
Exit polls would be announced immediately at 10pm and actual tallies,
from the manual count would be known in the morning.
The battle lines had been drawn, hope versus fear, change
versus status quo, and liberal elite versus settler. There were issues: Iran, cost of living, cost
of housing, undocumented migrants, Palestinian statehood, US relations, and worldwide
isolation. Stay the course with Likud or
try something new? The devil you know
versus the devil you don’t. Could Herzog
really lead us? Is he strong
enough? What has Bibi done for us? “We may not like Obama, but we need the US
and Bibi is damaging that relationship”, was a constant refrain. There were
reports of ballot stealing, voter intimidation, voter obstruction, outside
agitators, false advertisements, and the usual mix of election shenanigans. As
election day continued, Netanyahu and Likud became nervous going as far to use
social media to get out the vote: “The
right-wing government is in danger," Netanyahu wrote in a Facebook past, “Arab
voters are coming out in droves to the polls. Left-wing organizations are
busing them out." And thus two news stories were created, Bibi race bating
with the use of “Arabs”, who ARE Israeli citizens and have every right to vote,
and the claims that outside organizations, NGO’s, were trying to influence the
vote. Allegations that the State
Department was funding an Israeli organization via the OneVoice NGO to help
unseat Netanyahu. In response to Bibi’s
call to voters, Joint List candidate and MK Dov Khenin stated "A prime minister who campaigns against voting by citizens belonging
to an ethnic minority is crossing a red line of incitement and racism."
When the exit polls were released at 10pm,
there was surprise in the closeness of the race and disappointment on the
left. Exit polls from the three major TV
stations were very similar:
An essential dead heat at the top and the
Arab Party slightly ahead of Yesh Atid.
Bennet’s pro-settler party and Kahlon’s breakaway party (from Likud)
were safely in 5th and 6th. The religious right parties were next followed
by terribly disappointing results from Liberman’s corruption-scarred Yisrael
Beitenu and the feeble dovish Meretz.
Pundits immediately started doing the math to see how a coalition could
be formed and whether a unity government with Likud and Zionist Union was
possible. What was clear was the hopes
of a left leading coalition government were in jeopardy as Bibi’s path to 61
votes was going to be a lot easier: Likud (27) + Yesh Atid (11) + Jewish Home
(8) + Kulanu (10) + Shas (7) + UTJ (6) + Israel Beitenu (5). But there are no guarantees and perhaps Bibi
wouldn’t be able to form the coalition. Soon
the surprise and disappointment on the left would turn to horror in the
morning.
Many Israelis, and me, woke the next morning
to see that the actual vote was a death blow to the left and anti-Netanyahu
crowds. There was no dead heat, instead
Likud had clearly defeated the Zionist Camp (Union) 30-24. There would be no Herzog led coalition, there
would be no unity government. Bibi had rolled
the dice and disbanded his government and was rewarded with four new years and
the options to form broad coalition or a narrow right wing coalition.
But what happened over the last 72 hours
and how did the exit polls miss it so badly?
With regards to the former, Netanyahu’s last ditch attack plan to
consolidate the right under him and stoking fears got the rightist vote out in
his favor. Throughout the day, voter
turnout had been running on par with 2013 election results, but in the last two
hours after turnout calculations ended, a spike in turnout occurred which was likely
due to his plea to counter the Arab turnout numbers. This may have understated the strength in
Likud’s numbers. Additionally, as
America experienced in 2004, what someone tells a pollster after voting and
what they actually did in the booth are not necessarily the same. When the media was reporting higher numbers
for John Kerry in 2004 based on exit polls, there was cautious optimism on the
left; the same phenomena was playing out in Israel on Tuesday. At the end of the day, turnout was higher
than the previous four Parliamentary Elections, but well short of the 78.7%
from 1999.
The bigger issue, was likely pollster bias,
not personal bias, but statistical bias.
As I mentioned above and throughout the week via my Tweets, Tel Aviv,
while Israel’s 2nd largest city and media capital, polling results
can often be swayed by oversampling and overweighting the city on the Med. Analogous to the Beltway America and the ‘Real’
America, there seems to be an Israel and a ‘Real’ Israel dynamic. The actual voting results showed Likud’s
national strength versus Zionist Union’s local strength. Some examples:
Tel Aviv (highly secular)
Zionist Union: 34%Likud: 18%
Meretz: 13%
Yesh Atid: 12%
Jerusalem (highly religious)
Likud: 24%UTJ: 21%
Yahad: 7%
Shas: 12%
Haifa (secular)
Zionist Union: 25%Likud: 21%
Yesh Atid: 11%
As expected, Jewish Home (Bayit Yehudi)
scored well in the settler communities, Arab Joint List dominated Arab communities
like Nazareth, and the Haredi (Orthodox) parties did well in the religious enclaves. But where religion and ethnic factors were
not in play, Likud got the better of the Zionist Union in the smaller cities
such as Netanya, Ariel, and Beersheba.
Though it was interesting that the border communities hit the hardest by
Gazan rockets from Hamas went out in big numbers for Herzog and the Zionist
Union, but in Sderot, Likud won
convincingly.
At the end of the day, the wealthy and
elite went out for Zionist Union, the working class and settlers went out for Likud,
and the religious went with UTJ and Shas. Some estimates believe ~200,000
settlers went and voted for Likud over Jewish Home to make sure Herzog and his
Zionist Union were defeated. Take that
people who voted for Ralph Nader in 2000.
In hindsight, Bibi ran a better campaign,
Herzog was too passive, pollsters got it wrong, the anyone-but-Bibi campaign
was a failure, people voted against their own interests, and while only the
size of New Jersey, Israel’s electorate is not homogenous.
In the aftermath, Netanyahu has already
started to walk back his anti-two state solution rhetoric from the last days of
the campaign. Israel will face increased
isolation from the rest of the world.
The Obama administration’s disappointment and animus toward Netanyahu
could lead to problems at the UN for Israel.
John Boehner will participate in a victory lap in Israel later this
month, and Sarah Palin will break out her Magen David to celebrate and show off
her allegiance to Bibi.
Ha’aretz contributor and author Ari Shavit
questioned on election day “Will we continue to let fear rule us, or will we
chose hope?” It seems the electorate
chose the former, this time.
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